A few people have mentioned snow again to me this week. Well after checking the latest model data, the chance is there. As the airflow changes and starts coming from a Northerly direction, we can expect a few wintry showers over the weekend, especially on the higher ground as temperatures once again plummet.
As an amateur forecaster, I sometimes get it wrong, I openly admit that and understand when people complain. I have limited resources at my disposal which do not give a totally accurate picture. I have to read many charts and decipher those charts to come up with a forecast.
Weather is notoriously difficult to forecast as there is a number of factors that have to be taken into account. If one of those factors change, it has a knock on effect to everything. Snow forecasting is a major headache for even season and qualified forecasters. This last snow event 22/23rd March was difficult has we had 2 air masses fighting for supremacy. Warm, moist air, powered by a low pressure system off the Atlantic and a cold air mass coming from the East collided, mainly over the West and South West of the county , giving large accumulations of snow to these parts.
On the Thursday evening I voiced my concerns on Twitter regarding the warning level issued by the Met Office. I didn't think a Yellow warning was sufficient. Friday morning the Met Office raised their warning to Amber, AFTER it started snowing heavily in the upper Dales region and more noticeably, West of the Pennines.
The East and NE of the county escaped the heavy snow, and some of us got nothing more than a dusting. This is because the stronger cold air mass was at a slight angle, keeping the warm air confined to the West of the county.
Next week the cold theme continues, with more snow affecting mainly the eastern parts of the county, as it blows in off the North Sea. It will not be on the scale of what we are witnessing now. Snow is even possible for Easter weekend.
Thank you for taking time to read this, and if I get it wrong in the future (which I probably will) just bear in mind that I am an amateur, still learning the trade and bettering myself and my techniques. I provide this service out of my love and passion for the enigma that is weather , I have a family and a job, It's impossible for me to monitor the weather on a 24 hour basis and alert people to any changes that may affect my forecast. But I do try and update on Twitter and Facebook as much as I can.
Forecaster at County Durham Weather
Well as the cold weather will finally come to and end this weekend, flooding will be a cause for concern especially with more bad weather lurking in the Atlantic in the form of a Low Pressure system, or Two. Still a few days away, so details are sketchy at this moment in time. But high winds and heavy rain will be an issue throughout next week. Flood warning details will be posted on this site, Twitter and Facebook pages.
Well my first week of forecasting the weather, setting up my website ,Twitter page and Facebook page has been a bit of a challenge to say the least. My twitter page has more followers than I could of possibly imagined and my website has been getting close to 400 hits per day, again more than I could of imagined.
The purpose of setting up County Durham Weather initially was a personal interest page and providing local forecasts for the County Durham area. The response I have had from some followers is nothing short of fantastic with their messages of support.
As an amateur forecaster I do not have the qualifications or training like the professionals do and all I know is self taught, so yes I may get it wrong from time to time as weather forecasting is by no means easy and even the Met Office get it wrong. But I see all that as a learning curve and use it to improve my forecasting in the years ahead. As I work full time during the week it is impossible for me to monitor the weather throughout the day. Any changes that may occur that are different to my forecasts will go unnoticed by me unfortunately.
When you get forecasts of the radio or TV they are generalised, my forecasts are localised. As I know the topography of most of the region I can try and determine what kind of weather we can expect.